Dying Technologies of ‘09
Thumbs down for:
- subversion SCM
Will get replaced by git, Mercurrical and others
Commercial Vendors will probably stick with Perforce and others
- MySQL
MySQL sucks. Development has stuck and the purchase by sun fucked it up even more. Not sure if we see another opensource SQL RDBMS taking MySQLs position soon. No, PostgreSQL won’t.
Probably MySQL will die slowly and get replaced by either commercial SQL Servers and new database approaches like CouchDB, Tokyo Cabinet and others.
SQL as a concept has scaling problems. Most modern apps need to scale well but already use patterns (think ORM) that make many SQL language features useless. Useless waste of ressources and many unneeded features that can break.
Remember: The feature you don’t have, usually does not break.
- Java (Language)
Java as a VM is great. But Java as a language is mostly done. People will use more domain specific languages to do the job. Others will use scripting languages (JRuby, Python) or Groovy to cut the language overhead.
On the desktop Java is already dead: Windows apps usually are C++ or C# driven. Mac OS forces objective C and does not support Java as a Cococa framework language anymore (ok that’s nothing new).
- Heavy Weight Desktop Applications
Everyone can see the big success cheap Netbooks have. Users are looking for affordable products (cheap 400$ netbook) or great producs (Apple).
On the software side it’s going to be the same: Users will not accept dinosaurs like Word or Excel anymore. While professional users in corporate environments probably need the massive load of functions the big part of SOHO and consumers just needs “simpler”, “more productive” approaches.
Maybe we’ll se a re-rise of Microsoft Works?
iWork definitly gets it right.
- common password stategies
Do you use one password for all? You know this is bad. Even worse: Modern graphic cards can be used to attack passwords cheaply and fast. Longer, more complex passwords are required to maintain the level of security - but who on eath can remember different passwords? By different I mean a unique new password for every account.
Mac OS has a “Keychain”-Wallet, Browser-Plugins like 1Password doing the same thing for web-apps are getting more popular. But this just brings it back to a single point of failure: Your local system password.
- full disk encryption
Full Disc Encryption is broken by design. And I mean every system currently on the market. Google for “DMA Attack” & “freezed memory” attack watch http://dewy.fem.tu-ilmenau.de/CCC/25C3/video_h264_720x576/25c3-2922-en-advanced_memory_forensics_the_cold_boot_attacks.mp4
Physical access means “root”
- in the past.
- in the present.
- … and in the future.
- Skype
wrote about that a few months ago. still same opinion.
eBay will start slaughtering Skype soon.
- Windows Mobile as an application target
is dead. Blackberry currently owns the business part of this market, Google’s android tries to be cool but currently only Apple rules the overall market.
Apple’s and Google’s innovative and mostly developer-friendly solutions will wipe out Windows Mobile and Symbian.
Sooo many Symbian and Windows Phones already sold you say? True. But who’s seriously using that phones as smartphones? Consider every mobile phone sold until late 2007 as “not relevant” when it comes to the global mobile phone plattform deathmatch.
Let’s see when cheap and good designed smartphones are available. Maybe Android will win, maybe Apple does something.
Maybe Nokia switches to Android? Why not?
When Ericsson really discontinues its partnership with Sony and finally moves out of consumer phone business - what would Sony do?
Still use Symbian? Never.
Motorola as one of the last Symbian “fanboys” probably goes out of cellphone business soon. Happy subprime cleanout.
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